Opta’s league table makes grim reading for Newcastle United

Newcastle United sit bottom of Opta’s expected points table after five Premier League games, despite heading into the international break ninth with eight points.

That 11-place difference makes us the Premier League’s biggest overperformers by league position. It is a worrying assessment of our start under Matthias Jaissle, particularly when two wins, two draws and one defeat looks a respectable return.

Why Opta has Newcastle bottom

Opta’s table estimates how many points teams would normally get from the chances they create and concede. Newcastle have had a lower xG than the opposition in all five games, yet we’ve only lost once.

The concern is how long we can keep picking up results if we continue giving opponents better chances than we create ourselves.

There is some context, though. We’ve spent almost half our playing time in front, when there’s less need to push for another goal. And obviously we’re only five games into the season.

The eye test tells a different story

For me, the suggestion that we’ve been particularly fortunate doesn’t quite match what we’ve seen first-hand.

We deserved three points against Liverpool and got one. We deserved to beat Spurs and did.

We were fortunate to get a point against Bournemouth and deserved the hammering at Leeds. No complaints there.

Against Hull, put the penalty away for 3-0 and we win that game comfortably. Even with the nervy finish, I still felt we deserved the three points.

By my reckoning, we’re a point short of what we deserved.

xG is a useful data point, and being bottom of this table is worrying. But I’d take it with a pinch of salt after five games. We’ve had some poor spells and plenty to improve, yet I don’t think eight points flatters us based on what we’ve watched.