Newcastle set for eight 'cup finals' - starting with Sunderland tomorrow
After a gruelling schedule of 50 games crammed into the last eight months, Newcastle will face a serene run of just eight games over the next two months, but each has the potential to be a “cup final” as United look to finish on a high and qualify for European football.
There is a scenario where if Villa win the Europa League and finish fifth, then sixth place will become a Champions League qualification spot via UEFA’s coefficient rules, meaning the season isn’t dead with United being six points off that spot currently and some (on paper) favourable fixtures upcoming.
But if that scenario doesn’t play out; United shouldn’t call time on the season as qualifying for any European competition feels vital for the teams and coaches’ development in the face of what could be a transfer-heavy summer both in and out of the club.
So, let’s look at the remaining fixtures and see where the points could potentially be won and lost.
Sunderland (H)
Must be three points for a myriad of reasons. In no particular order; setting the record straight, getting Wednesday out of our system, restoring confidence, and making it three wins in a row in the league (something we’ve only done once this season).
A tough match that many will not be looking forward to, and one that feels only a knife edge away from disaster, this match has become one of the biggest moments of the season, and I feel the squad will understand that and back them to get the job done.
Prediction: Three points
Crystal Palace (A)
Not a ground United traditionally do well at, but Palace will surely have one eye on their first ever European Quarter Final just 96 hours later. Another side whose form has been up and down this season, Palace bought well in January to stabilise their season, but with a manager on his final hurrah tour too, will his priorities be elsewhere?
United have been poor on the road this season but have picked up a couple of decent results recently, and Bruno could be back for this game, but I don’t think we’ll win this one, but we won’t lose it either.
Prediction: One point
Bournemouth (H)
An Eddie Howe bogey side but they’ve only won four games in their last ten (but will have two games to improve that record between now and then) and those sorts of terrible records must end at some point, right?
At time of writing, they sit just a point behind us in the table, so this can certainly be classed as a game against a potential European qualification rival, and United have generally got themselves up for these sorts of games throughout Eddie Howe’s tenure.
But the bogey team tag still rankles, and I just can’t see that changing until it does, if that makes sense. Bournemouth just seem to have our (and Eddie Howe’s) number.
Prediction: Zero points
Arsenal (A)
The one truly horrible game we have left to play this season, and I just can’t see our terrible record at the Emirates changing. Arsenal, whatever you think about their style of football (and for the record, I hate it, I think they’ve dragged English football back a couple of decades), have been the one consistent team in the Premier League this season and it appears as if they will win the league off the back of it.
Their style saw us concede two stoppage time goals in the first game between the sides this season, despite us playing well for the previous 90 minutes, and I think they will continue to be too much for us.
Prediction: Zero points
Brighton (H)
Another team who has beaten us at St James’ Park recently but have also been on the end of a few drubbings too. We tend to struggle down on the South coast, but memories of the 4-1 win that all but secured Champions League football hopefully aren’t too faded from 2022/23.
Danny Welbeck is a constant thorn in our side, so if he plays, we will more than likely concede and even though we will be looking to improve on our record of not beating them in the last six attempts, I just can’t see it unfortunately.
Prediction: One point
Nottingham Forest (A)
Sides embroiled in a relegation battle at this time of the season always present a challenge and I still think we were fortunate to play them at SJP when Ange was in charge earlier in the season.
However, their form is poor, and we have won on our last four visits to the City Ground, including the League Cup 3rd round victory (on pens) that set us on our way to glory last season.
Forest may well still have European football to contend with too which could be a factor in squad selection.
Prediction: Three points
West Ham (H)
Repeat ad infinitum for what I said above minus the European stuff. Will be a tough contest based purely on West Ham’s desire to try and escape relegation.
The game earlier this season felt like an early season portent for our own up and down form, but United have only lost five of the last 19 games against the Hammers dating back to January 2016.
But you simply must beat sides down the bottom of the table at home, and I’ll back the lads to do it in this match.
Prediction: Three points
Fulham (A)
Memories will always turn to the sun-drenched last day of the season for what turned out to be Rafa Benitez’s last match as manager that saw United romp to a 4-0 win, and we naively thought things were finally looking up after a stellar end to the 2018/19 season.
Fulham were already relegated that season, but this iteration is a much better side with European ambitions of their own. Sometimes we go there and win well, other times we get hammered, none more so than the 5-2 hammering back in January 2012. But over the last 18 games across all competitions between the two sides, United have won 11 of them.
Last days of the season always throw up odd results, but the last time Newcastle needed a victory to secure what we thought would be European football (in 2023/24 against Brentford) they got the job done with aplomb, and if it’s needed again, I’d back us to do it.
Prediction: Three points
Strong endings
So, that’s fourteen points earned between now and the end of the season with a six-point gap to overturn to sixth. Will it be enough? Probably not, looking at the other sides’ fixtures, but it should be enough to get seventh which would see us secure back-to-back European seasons for the first time since Sir Bobby.
An ambitious total based on the last eight months, maybe, but we’ve seen strong last eight game runs in each of Eddie Howe’s seasons in charge; with 13 secured last season, 17 secured to 2023/24, 15 in 2022/23, and 18 in 2021/22. Let’s hope for more of the same.
