Safe at last?

I've read comments from a few people now who are still apprehensive about our Premier League safety.

So I thought I would crunch the numbers and see just how far away from safety we are. The short answer is, not very far, but let's go into a bit more detail and see exactly what we need to do and, more importantly, what other teams need to do to if they are to drag us into a relegation battle.

Sow where do we start? I guess the best place to start is with West Ham who currently occupy bottom place in the Premier League.

West Ham United cannot go above us on points. The very best they can do is draw level with us on points if they win their remaining three games against Blackburn, Wigan and Sunderland, and we lose all of our remaining games. If that did happen then goal difference would come into play and West Ham would need to manufacture a situation that will see them have a +22 goal difference over us in the final three games.

Thanks to goal difference Wolves effectively need to win all three of their remaining games against West Brom, Sunderland and Blackburn. They can get away with two wins and a draw, but they'll have to hope that they can also manufacture a +22 goal difference swing over us.

Wigan need two wins and a draw from their three remaining games to go above us. Once again, if they can somehow achieve a +22 goal difference swing they could get away with just two wins from their final three games. Those games are Aston Villa, West Ham. and Stoke.

At this point it's worth noting that West Ham and Wigan play each other so there is zero chance of both sides gaining maximum points.

So that is the bottom three taken care of, but I'm also going to include Blackpool in this. They sit in 17th place on the same points as Wigan but with a marginally (one goal) better goal difference. Effectively they need either two wins and a +21 goal difference swing or two wins and a draw from their three games against Tottenham, Bolton and Manchester United.

Remember, this is all based on us losing every game, heavily, and the other teams picking up the results they need whilst scoring a few goals in the process.

It just isn't going to happen!

So whilst our season may well fizzle out, you can be assured that it is highly, highly unlikely that we'll go down. Realistically we've been safe for a few weeks now, although I do understand why some people have been cautious whilst there is still a mathematical risk of us getting relegated. Hopefully this clarifies just what is needed for us to go down now.

And relax, and breathe.