Newcastle’s make-or-break summer
Newcastle United are facing a potentially make-or-break summer in the transfer market.
Whilst the window doesn’t officially open until 15th June, one deal has already gone through as Barcelona announced the arrival of Anthony Gordon on Friday night, allowing Newcastle to bank a rumoured £70m early in the window.
The sheer size of the clubs interested in Gordon highlighted the calibre of player we are going to lose (the lad is elite even if he hasn’t had the best end to the season) and to lose a player of his talent throws pressing questions at the clubs hierarchy about who will come in to replace him as it will have to be a hell of a player if we are not to get worse down the left flank.
A reset and refresh is needed
The key words coming out of United about this summer are “refresh” and “reset”, but I feel “overhaul” is much more appropriate.
Without the carrot of European football, other Premier League clubs outside of the “big six” (not to mention the others across Europe also in the competitions) will be able to offer more gametime at the elite level making them more attractive to certain players, which means United are going to have to box clever in the market.
Ross Wilson had a good reputation for doing just that at Nottingham Forest with some of the players he signed in the summer of 2023 (Aina, Wood, Sangare, Elanga [cough, cough] and Murillo) going on to propel them to their best season in a generation, but it’s the previous summer I want to analyse in 2022.
Some of those signed were misses (Jesse Lingard, although on a one-year deal as a newly promoted side…) but of the successes: Dean Henderson, Neco Williams, Morgan Gibbs-White, and Taiwo Awoniyi stand out, and there was certainly some value in Moussa Niakhate, Cheikhou Kouyate, Renan Lodi, and Wily Boly but the factor that is often overlooked is the cost.
At a £150million outlay, the players arrived at an average cost of £8.8million, and whilst deals at that level are a risk, they allow a club leeway for them not to work out. Gibbs-White was the clear star buy at £40million (and I still want Newcastle to be shopping for those sorts of players) but the £17million deal for Neco Williams, who would probably cost double that now, is the type of deal United need to look at making this summer to overhaul our squad.
United simply cannot afford anymore £55million flops and after a summer that saw two arrive, and essentially £110million flushed down the Swanee, a marked change in how transfers are done is key to making a success of the overhaul and, more importantly, lifting some of the gloom around the club.
How does that apply to Newcastle in 2026?
The big question is then: how would a summer like Forests of 2022 translate into Newcastle’s of 2026? First, I’m not suggesting Newcastle will sign 23 players but pushing double figures doesn’t feel wide of the mark of what’s required.
Of the 23 players Forest signed that summer, 11 were from abroad (including three loans), four were free transfers, and the remaining eight were signed from domestic clubs. A similar ratio is what Newcastle should be looking to achieve this summer as the value on the continent far outstrips that available in the Premier League whilst not ignoring the talent pool on our doorstep.
United are set to lose Trippier, Krafth, and Ramsdale for certain, and Gordon looks nailed on to leave too. The rumours around Tonali and Livramento continue to swirl and with the latter entering the final two years of his contract his value will never be higher. A host of youngsters will leave too with Max Thompson and Harrison Ashby already confirmed to be away.
There are huge question marks over Wissa, Pope, Woltemade (although I’d keep the German personally), Elanga, Schar (offered a new one-year deal but not signed) and Osula, despite his good end to the season, was already attracting offers before his development and he may be seen as a saleable asset.
Joelinton also has two years left on his deal, and since he signed it in April 2024, he only has ten goal involvements in the league; is it crazy to think we should be looking to move on from a player like the Brazilian? Burn and Murphy too are both past 30 and not likely to get any better moving forward.
Just on those names alone; that’s 17 players. Say a third to half of them leave (five-eight since you can’t saw a footballer in half) and three of them are reduced to squad players. That’s a conservative 8-11 first team players who need to be replaced with the club having so much less to offer players than other sides.
And following on from a summer with an outlay of over £250million, over half of which was spent on players most fans would be happy to see leave the club not twelve months later, and it’s clear that there needs to be a massive shift in how the club conducts its business this summer.
Naming individual players who are actually going to come in is ultimately a fruitless business but I would encourage anyone to have a look at the free transfer list this summer as there are some decent names on there who would certainly improve our squad, and it’s time for Newcastle (and more importantly, Eddie Howe) to bin off their clear loathing of the loan market as there is value to be had there too.
So, it’s time for the clubs completely untested executive team to earn its chops, and overhaul a tired and aging squad with a degree of nous that was missing from last summer's acquisitions…a fact that I know scares me and many other United fans alike, meaning it really could be a make or break summer for the club’s 2030 vision.
