Sunderland (A) – Pre-match thoughts, team news, possible XI and prediction

Geordies vs Mackems. Tyneside vs Wearside. Eddie Howe vs Regis Le Bris. 12th vs 9th and pride on the line as derby day returns to the North East this weekend.

10 years on from our last Premier League trip to the Stadium of Light, Newcastle take on Sunderland in Sunday's 2pm kick-off knowing a win would not only restore local bragging rights, but see us leapfrog the Mackems in the table.

In a season where we've been consistently inconsistent, spent much of it in the bottom half, conceded too many late goals and taken time to click after a summer full of late ins and outs, there is a quiet belief we are starting to turn the corner after picking up 10 points from a possible 12.

Recent draws to Spurs and Bayer Leverkusen left a bitter taste in the mouth, as we let in late goals in games we really should've won. That trend must change, with Sunday now a huge test of our resilience in that respect, but we look a different side with Lewis Hall and Tino Livramento fit, Anthony Gordon is back firing, Bruno Guimaraes has been in inspired form and Yoane Wissa's return is a timely boost, easing the goalscoring burden on Nick Woltemade and giving Howe another weapon to change a game from the bench.

Sunderland have signed superbly since promotion, they defend with real grit and discipline, and there is little doubt that Le Bris has done an impressive job so far, but they don't create a great deal (16th for chances created) and have only won one of their last six; a comeback to beat Bournemouth from 2-0 down last month.

Speaking ahead of the game, Howe had this message for the fans, the city and his players:

“It means everything to me, personally. I want to do the club, the city, our people proud,

“It will be difficult I think, these games always are because there’s a lot of emotion, there’s a lot of challenges for the players to overcome to make sure we enter the pitch in the right frame of mind and where we absolutely need to be, which is focused on how we play and what we need to do.”

“The arousal levels are absolutely key: you can be too high, you can be too low. I don’t think there’ll be many too low in preparation got this game, but finding that place where the players play at their best is my challenge.”

“And of course you don’t want the players to overthink things, it’s a very important game, but we’ve gotta focus on our performance, so all these things will be important.”

​”We have some new players who perhaps don’t grasp the magnitude of this game as well as others. We will be using every method available in the coming days to make absolutely certain that every single player steps onto that pitch fully aware of its importance.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1dv3iSlzh8k&pp=ygUKZWRkaWUgaG93ZQ%3D%3D

Team news

Nick Pope (groin) has a chance of returning after missing our last four games, but Sven Botman (back), Kieran Trippier (hamstring), Will Osula (ankle) and Emil Krafth (knee) remain sidelined.

Yoane Wissa was ill earlier in the week, explaining his limited minutes at Leverkusen, but he's been passed fit to feature, while Joelinton is expected to be OK despite feeling his groin on Wednesday.

For Sunderland, left-back Reinildo Mandava is fit after missing their 3-0 defeat at Man City last weekend, but Habib Diarra won't be back until next week. Luke O'Nien is suspended.

Predicted XI

(4-3-3): Pope – Livramento, Thiaw, Burn, Hall – Bruno, Tonali, Miley – Murphy, Woltemade, Gordon.

OUT: Ramsdale, Joelinton, Barnes IN: Pope, Miley, Murphy.

It sounds like Pope could return from a groin injury, and I think Howe will bring him straight back into his XI. Sunderland are a big, physical side who are dangerous from set pieces, meaning Pope's height, presence and willingness to come for crosses may be preferred to a shorter and far more hesitant Ramsdale, who has looked anything but convincing when balls have come into the box.

The back four picks itself. Perhaps harsh for Schar to miss out again, but there is no chance Burn doesn't play; a Geordie who gets it, the man for the big occasion, a leader in the group and a player whose height could be key against the likes of Ballard, Mukiele and Alderete.

In midfield, I am 60/40 in my belief that Miley will replace Joelinton. The Brazilian is made for a war in midfield, but Miley has shown recently that he's improved physically and able to win headers (his 80% win rate is better than Joelinton's in the 50s), while also offering a little more composure in possession.

In attack, Gordon was superb in that second half at Leverkusen and has three goals and an assist in his last three, and looks confident again, so I expect him on the left wing, Woltemade up top and Murphy to come back into the side down the right, with Barnes, Elanga and Wissa all options who could make an impact from the bench.

Match prediction

There is a common misconception right now that Sunderland are flying and Newcastle are struggling, yet we've lost one of our last six and the Mackems have only mustered one win in their last six.

Form, however, often goes out the window on derby day, so this could all be about silencing the crowd early, winning our duels while keeping our heads and finding those moments of quality in amongst the chaos!

Aside from the midfield battle, where Bruno and Tonali will go head to head with the experienced Xhaka and energetic Sadiki, our biggest challenge will be stopping them from set pieces and finding a way to break down their stubborn defence at the other end, with Le Bris pragmatic approach having the potential to cause problems.

A boring answer in a week where everyone debates 'who is going to win it', but I think this has a low-scoring draw written all over it!

Prediction: Sunderland 1-1 Newcastle

Howay the lads!