Eddie Howe - Is this the start of a long goodbye?
Discontent has rumbled on within the support for a number of weeks now. Eddie Howe wasn’t given the England job, which has helped avoid some of the noise, but the weekend defeat to Brighton has led to even more criticism of the head coach.
The current league position of 8th after eight matches is far from a disaster, but the next two league matches are against Chelsea and Arsenal. It is conceivable that we lose both of those matches. If that does happen, there will be a lot more focus on Howe’s job security. This is only heightened by the presence of Paul Mitchell. Although the pair are reportedly on better terms now, the previous conflict will have done little to secure the current head coach in the eyes of the sporting director.
It does feel too early to be seriously discussing a managerial change. Howe has done an excellent job for the last two seasons. The top four finish speaks for itself, but last season’s 7th placed finish was impressive in its own right. When you take all of the contributing factors into consideration, we overachieved and were very unfortunate to miss out on European qualification.
However, one of the ‘positives’ of missing out on Europe was that we would have fewer matches in the 2024/25 campaign and that should translate to a higher league finish. We are well placed after eight matches, but Aston Villa have already grown a five-point gap to us. If the next two don’t go our way, we could have a huge mountain to climb in order to compete for the Champions League places.
Critics of Howe will point to the players he has available to him this season. The injury reason is no longer there, but performances continue to look muddled.
To me, as a Howe supporter, things do look like they have been allowed to grow stale. If a Premier League club doesn’t sign first team players in a transfer window, they stand still. And in this league, standing still is going backwards. The frustrating thing to me is that we aren’t a million miles away from having a very strong starting eleven. The squad needs a lot of work, but without European competition, that shouldn’t have been a big issue this season.
If we had managed to sign a quality centre back and a right winger during the summer, we would have been in an excellent position to compete for the top four. Without those additions, it has sent out the wrong message, both to the current squad and the fan-base. It was a huge mis-step to allow the transfer window to play out like it did.
Howe has been hung out to dry, but he isn’t blameless. His loyalty to players has been one of the reasons for a lack of a squad churn in recent seasons. In recent matches, his choice of substitutions has allowed games to fizzle out rather than ignite. Sandro Tonali’s departure on Saturday completely stunted our attacking thrust, while the lack of innovation in playing style and set pieces is a huge concern. We have become easy to predict and play against.
Those who want Howe to be replaced now are jumping the gun. It is still early in the season, but there are signs that this feels like the beginning of the end. He is approaching his third-year anniversary in charge of the club. In the modern era, that is a long tenure, therefore it perhaps isn’t surprising that things have gone stale.
The underlying metrics make it difficult to really take a stance either way on Howe. At the start of the season, the performances were bad, but the results were good. In the last three, the reverse has been true. It would be much easier if our form lines matched that of the performances. If they did, we would be approaching the next two with genuine confidence. Instead, we approach them with trepidation.
Howe needs time to get the season on track, but there is no denying that he is now under pressure. The level of pressure isn’t huge, but it is there. Now is the time for him to show that he remains the right man to lead the club. If the staleness remains, this could be a long goodbye.
