Why Newcastle look set to sell Martin Dubravka - despite impressive run of form
Martin Dubravka started the season as a player the majority of the fan-base wanted to see leave the club. He had been a good servant since joining under Rafa Benitez, but his presence in the team last season looked to be a weakness.
The club had five senior goalkeepers on their books and were chasing James Trafford to make it six. It seemed inevitable that a keeper would have to leave and the Slovakian international was the one most likely to depart.
That is still the case in January, with a move to Saudi Arabia being heavily touted in the press. However, the landscape has changed since then and a growing section of the support are now wanting Dubravka to stay. Some are even suggesting he should be the number one when Nick Pope comes back from injury.
Since deputising for the England international, Dubravka has played six games in all competitions. During this run, we have seen the team win six successive matches across all competitions, conceding only twice. It has been a run of form that has transformed the club’s hopes for the season, therefore it is unsurprising that the goalkeeper has received his fair share of plaudits.
It has been his distribution of the ball that has attracted the most attention, as he has been calm in possession and offered an option to defenders when they are being pressed. Pope’s biggest weakness is his ability with the ball at his feet, as he often rushes and kicks the ball out of play. Dubravka has a pass success rate of 77%, which is higher than Pope’s 63%.
Despite the impressive defensive record of the team, Dubravka has only made seven saves in the Premier League since his return to the team. It could be argued that the lack of shots is a direct consequence of the goalkeeper’s presence, but the sample size is too small to firmly state that. Last season, Dubravka didn’t always impress with his shot stopping.
The more glaring difference between the two keepers is their confidence off the goal-line. Pope is very aggressive in his positioning when we have the ball, which means he is able to come off his line and sweep up any long balls played by the opposition team. He averages 1.94 defensive actions outside of his penalty area per ninety minutes, ranking him in the top 10% of goalkeepers in the world. Meanwhile, Dubravka averages 0.9 on the same metric, placing him in the bottom 50% of keepers.
Given the lack of pace we have in our defence, it is important to have a keeper able to sweep behind them if we are to successfully play a high line. Anthony Elanga’s threat in the game away to Nottingham Forest last season showed the problems caused by Dubravka when we play a high line.
In the summer, it would make sense to recruit a new goalkeeper, who could show the best traits of both Pope and Dubravka. In an ideal world, we need a number one who is a good shot stopper, comfortable off his line to sweep and able to distribute the ball effectively.
For Eddie Howe, he needs to pick his poison with the number one position, as Pope isn’t good with the ball at his feet, while Dubravka isn’t comfortable off his line.
It has been an excellent run of form for Dubravka and it has improved his standing within the fan-base. After some of his comments in recent years and his decision to join Manchester United on loan, that relationship had been somewhat soured. Now, he will leave the club with everyone’s best wishes and he should be remembered as a good goalkeeper for this club in a difficult period. During the Steve Bruce era, he earned the club a lot of points and helped keep us in the league.
However, given his age and contract situation, we should be looking to cash in on him this month. He turns 36 this month and if we have the opportunity to get a fee for him, we should take it. It is unlikely to transform our PSR situation, but every little helps and we could extract a higher fee given his recent form and new squad status with Pope injured.
