Newcastle’s next striker – Summer 2025 scout report
Newcastle United are still to make a first team signing. It is early in the summer, but supporters are desperate to see what steps the club are going to take to support Eddie Howe. Reinforcements are needed if we are to push on next season.
We continue our transfer series by looking at centre forwards. Callum Wilson may depart this summer and the club need to find a reliable support for Alexander Isak.
Below, we discuss five potential options to consider.
Joao Pedro – Brighton
There have already been substantial links to Joao Pedro, who is a long-term target of the club. Howe came close to signing him a few years ago when he was playing for Watford, prior to his move to Brighton. Since then, he has performed well in the Premier League and continued his development. The Brazilian is a striker, but he can play in a number of attacking positions and that is why he appeals to the club this summer.
Pedro is an intriguing tactical option, as he is very progressive in the final third and capable of bringing other attackers into play. It can be argued that he would be better playing off another forward than being the number nine himself, as he likes to drop into midfield positions. He averages 3.6 progressive passes (96th percentile), 3.05 progressive carries (97th percentile) and 3.33 shot creating actions (90th percentile) per ninety minutes.
Last season, we struggled when we needed to break down deep blocks. Pedro has the dynamism and creativity to provide a solution to that issue. The Brazilian likes to drop into the pockets and create space for runners to go beyond him. He is also hard working off the ball and would thrive in the press that Howe coaches.
The key issue with Pedro is his own goal threat. He averages only 1.94 shots per ninety minutes, which ranks him in the 19th percentile among forwards. The Brighton forward scored ten Premier League goals last season, but five of those came from the spot. If he is to play in Isak’s place, he will need to increase his shot volume.
Yoane Wissa – Brentford
Although his age may mean he doesn’t appear on our radar, Yoana Wissa could be perfect for the role we are recruiting for. Brentford are entering a period of transition with Thomas Frank set to join Tottenham. This could mean that their key players are more open to a move away. At the age of 28, it is the right time for Wissa to test himself at a higher level.
The Congo international has scored 31 goals over the last two Premier League seasons. That is an impressive record and underline the goal threat that he carries. Perhaps more impressive than his goal record is that his underlying stats back it up. Last season, Wissa averaged 2.77 shots and 0.57 non-penalty expected goals (npxG) per ninety minutes. These both rank in the top quarter of all forward players.
Wissa comes alive in the penalty area, but he can also create space for himself and carry the ball. The forward averages 1.85 progressive carries per ninety minutes. Like Pedro, he can link the play too. The 28-year-old contributed four assists in the recent season.
If we did sign him, he would be happy to play a squad role and his age means that his price won’t be as high as Pedro.
Breel Embolo – Monaco
This is a similar suggestion to Wissa. At 28, Breel Embolo isn’t the age profile that we have typically targeted since the takeover. However, Embolo would add a quality and versatile attacking option to the squad. He is a less impressive goalscorer than Wissa, having scored just six from 10.8 xG last season in Ligue 1.
That being said, Embolo can play as a centre forward, as a withdrawn forward or on the flanks. As a teenager, he was spoken about as a potentially elite player. Physically, he has an intimidating build which should be perfect for the Premier League. He is powerful and capable of using his strength to bully players. Meanwhile, the Swiss international has a turn of pace and can beat players on the dribble.
Last season, Embolo’s finishing was poor, as he underperformed his xG by over four. However, it was encouraging that he continued to get into goalscoring positions. Historically he has scored at the rate expected, so we can write off last season’s wastefulness as an anomaly.
It is tough to recruit for a striker to support Alexander Isak. This is why a player like Embolo could appeal. He has the physical traits to succeed in England, while he has experience at the highest level. Last season, he contributed a goal and three assists in ten Champions League matches. His versatility means he wouldn’t be restricted to only covering for Isak.
The advantage of targeting players in their late 20s like Embolo and Wissa is that the transfer fee won’t be as expensive as younger alternatives. This would help focus the budget to the positions where we require first team improvements.
Tammy Abraham – Roma
During his time at Chelsea, Tammy Abraham looked to be developing into an excellent Premier League striker. He was in the England squad and pushing Harry Kane for minutes. In the 2019-20 season, he scored 15 times. He then moved to Italy and thrived at Roma under Jose Mourinho before a serious injury.
The striker scored 17 times during his debut season in Italy, helping his team win the Conference League. There is talk that he wants to return to England this summer after a disappointing season with AC Milan on loan. He scored five goals for the Italian giants, but he didn’t look like he settled into the team.
Abraham scored three goals in Serie A from 7.1 xG, which is underwhelming. Like Embolo, this is a slight anomaly from the rest of his career though, as he is usually an average finisher.
We have seen Eddie Howe improve players late in their career. Jacob Murphy is the perfect example of this. Abraham has had a poor couple of years, but he retains a high level of ability. He scored in last season’s Champions League, which showed that he can still impact games at the highest level.
If the price is a fair one, he could be a good option to replace Callum Wilson.
Nicolas Jackson – Chelsea
This is the true wildcard suggestion and it may not be one for this summer. Chelsea have signed Liam Delap this summer and they continue to be linked with other strikers. If those market movements happen, it does indicate that Chelsea don’t believe Jackson will be their number nine for the long term.
It is clear that Jackson is raw. He does frustrate with his end product and can be wasteful in the final third. That being said, Chelsea are clearly a much better team with him on the pitch. He is excellent at finding space in the final third and getting high quality chances.
In the recent Premier League season, he averaged 0.5 xG and 3.08 shots per ninety minutes. These rank him in the 81st and 78th percentiles respectively. In addition to getting on the end of chances, Jackson can create for others as displayed by his five assists in the Premier League season.
Interestingly fbref suggests that the most similar player to Jackson from a statistical perspective is Alexander Isak. They profile very similarly and that is why he has been included on this list.
There is no doubting that the Senegalese striker is raw and needs to be developed further. However, he could be the perfect long-term replacement for Isak should the Swede ever leave the club. If he ever becomes available, we should be all over it.
