Newcastle United and the second half drop off - An alarming comparison

The next few weeks are going to be bleak for Eddie Howe. Regardless of your view on whether he should remain in post, and there are good arguments on both sides, he will be feeling the disappointment as much as anyone else.

One of his strengths since taking the position has been his relentless work ethic, but it can also be a weakness when the going gets tough. If you are so laser focused on the role, you are prone to overthinking and what could be a straightforward solution that is staring you in the face can be missed.

The next few weeks will feature a lot of introspection, and it is up to the manager to prove, once again, that he is the right man for the job. For some reading this, that will be viewed as an impossible task, but as long as he remains in post, he has that opportunity.

Newcastle’s second half woes

One of the most disappointing aspects of this season has been the team’s inability to hold on to a lead. Game management was once a strength, and Howe’s men were excellent front-runners. That is no longer the case, and the stats don’t make for pretty reading.

The team have lost an incredible 22 points from winning positions. They also had the lead in the FA Cup tie against Manchester City and the Champions League knockout tie against Barcelona. They ended up getting knocked out of both competitions. It has been a huge issue and one that Howe has failed to get an answer to.

The first vs second half stats make for stark reading. Eddie Howe’s teams have always prided themselves on their ability to get out of the blocks quickly. That high pressing football has become our calling card, but it is relatively pointless if the team can’t manage a lead.

There has been a controlled nature to our starts to games. We have often managed to get into a positive game state, which should help the team earn more points. In theory, it should be easier to score more goals and win matches if you are in the lead, as the pressure gets heaped onto the opponent. That just hasn't been true for us this season. It feels scoring a goal helps the opposition more than it helps us.

Looking at the stats for when we have a one-goal lead, the expected numbers are interesting. We have had an xG of 12.12, while our opponents have an accumulative xG of 12.15. While it may feel like we sit off when we have the lead, and there is some truth to that, the chances at both ends are fairly even. The big difference is the taking of these chances. We have scored 7, while our opponents have scored 13. There has been an issue with our end product this season.

That is evidenced further in the table above, as we have underperformed our expected goals across the board. Our attack isn't adding value. Nick Woltemade, Yoane Wissa and Anthony Gordon have all had periods of being played as the central striker. None of them have managed to make the position their own. Meanwhile, our wingers keep changing. Confidence has been a huge issue for all of our attackers this season and that results in an underperformance in the stats.

What has caused the second half drop off?

The most explanation is fatigue. We have played 51 matches to date this season, which is more than any other team in the top European leagues. Now we are out of all other competitions, other teams will surpass us, but it has clearly had an impact on our results.

Howe is known for his high-intensity style of play and it is not sustainable when you play this number of matches. He has tried to make adjustments to the game model. This has led to the players trying to slow the game down when we have the lead and keep possession. It is a good idea in theory and it makes sense - get the lead, conserve energy and try to force mistakes in your opponent.

In practice, it hasn't worked, as shown by our dismal record when we have the lead. The main reason why is our lack of technical ability. The squad has been tooled with athletes, well suited to high pressing football. Few are also capable of keeping possession effectively. There have been countless examples of players giving the ball away in dangerous positions that have led to goals or big chances for our opposition.

The first half and second half stat breakdown do show how our matches become open in the second halves of matches. The number of shots increase at both ends, but the most devastating stat is how we have conceded 30 times, which is almost double that we have in first halves.

Again, this is caused by fatigue, both mental and physical. Our matches become chaotic and this often favours the opponent. If our players are a slightly off their pressing game, space opens up all across the pitch. This trend was also seen in the 2023/24 season, during our last European campaign.

All of the above suggests that Eddie Howe has yet to figure out how to successfully lead a European campaign, while maintaining form domestically. This has been his second attempt at it and lessons haven't been learned.

The challenge ahead 

In some ways, he has been a victim of his own success, as he would have benefitted from a season in one of the lesser European competitions. However, we need a manager capable of competing on multiple fronts in a sustainable fashion. It is difficult to argue Howe can.

It is imperative that the club find a way to salvage something from this season. European qualification is still possible through the league, even if the loss at the weekend has made that more difficult. Howe and the players have three weeks off. There is time to rest and re-focus.

Although it would be fantastic if we end the season strongly and qualify for Europe, we won't have learned anything new about Howe. We know he's an exceptional coach when he has time on the training ground. Unfortunately for him, he no longer has a chance to prove his doubters wrong.

Stats only include Premier League matches