Bakayoko to Newcastle? - Why the PSV star could be a good fit on Tyneside
The January transfer window is finally open. The last two windows have been underwhelming, as PSR has the club in a bind and there has been an inability to strengthen the squad.
Eddie Howe has continued to play down the chances of signings being made in January, but media reports continue to be written about interest in strengthening in the forward positions. Right wing has been a priority position for the club in recent years and it could be the right time to move in that area of the pitch.
Despite Jacob Murphy’s good form in recent weeks, he isn’t a long-term solution in the position. He has had runs of good form before, but he doesn’t have the consistency to maintain it.
Johan Bakayoko - A good fit for Newcastle?
Johan Bakayoko is the name that has been heavily linked to the club across Europe, both by local and European journalists. That same message across multiple platforms suggests there is some truth to the rumour.
The 21-year-old winger fits the profile that we will be looking at under Paul Mitchell. Bakayoko is young, with potential to develop further. Despite this rawness, he has a lot experience in the Netherlands and for the Belgian national team. He is much more ready for the first team than summer signing Will Osula.
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There is also likely to be little issue extracting him from PSV. The Dutch club have been accepting of their position in the transfer chain, as they often sell key players for a profit and invest that in their own squad. Despite his obvious talent and potential, Bakayoko rarely plays 90 minutes for Peter Bosz’s side as they are well stocked in the forward areas. Although he is an exciting option with plenty of upside, he isn’t a player that the club will dig their heels in over if a fair transfer fee is offered.
As a player, there are characteristics that mark Bakayoko out as a classic Newcastle United winger. He is a high volume dribbler with an unpredictability in his final action that makes him difficult to defend against. It would be too simple to compare him to Allan Saint-Maximin, but there are clear qualities that the two players share.
The Belgian international averages 7.64 progressive carries and 2.71 successful take ons per ninety minutes. These rank in the 99th and 92nd percentiles. These show that he is an elite dribbler. Bakayoko looks to progress the ball by carrying it and has the ability to break through deep defences with this rapid turn of foot. His output is very impressive in the Eredivisie, as he averages 3.28 shots and 4.19 shot creating actions per ninety minutes. This places him in the 94th and 68th percentiles among his peers.
His underlying metrics are impressive, as he averages 0.33 non penalty expected goals and 0.22 expected assisted goals per ninety minutes. Bakayoko is playing in an aggressive attacking team in a weaker league, so these stats would all likely fall off in the Premier League, but the raw ingredients are there for him.
Bosz has a very laissez faire style, which does reduce the defensive responsibility of his attackers. This has led him to struggle in bigger leagues and may explain Bakayoko’s low defensive numbers. He ranks in the bottom third for tackles, interceptions, blocks, clearances and aerial duels won. It is also worth remembering that PSV dominate a lot of games, but in pure quantity, he won’t show highly for defensive actions.
That said, he has displays good work rate in Champions League games. Although he is raw, he could develop his off the ball game in a bigger league.
Would Bakayoko be a good signing?
Bakayoko is clearly an elite talent, as shown by his attacking numbers. They jump off the page and the unpredictable style that he possesses means that he is a talent worth taking a bet on for around the £40m mark. If he develops his off the ball game and displays the same attacking quality in a bigger league, he could be worth double that in a few years time.
Eddie Howe may prefer to target a more proven quantity, but if we are to progress as a club, we need to be shrewder with our spending. Bakayoko does look to be a player with high upside, but he may not immediately make an impact in the first team.
The transition from the Eredivisie to the Premier League is a notably difficult one. Memphis Depay, Steven Bergwijn, Vincent Janssen, Cody Gakpo and Antony have all shown it can take time. Gakpo is the one who is now performing on a consistent basis, but he arrived in a settled squad high on quality and he has been given time to build confidence in the league.
Bakayoko may need a similar level of patience before he shows consistent levels. However, he is clearly an exciting player and the type of profile we love at St James’ Park.
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